The price spread between SHFE copper and BC copper continues to invert, with low inventory supporting copper prices [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2508 contract opened at 68,990 yuan/mt. It closed with a positive daily candle, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. During the night session, the most-traded BC copper 2508 contract touched a low of 68,950 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session. Subsequently, the center of copper prices moved straight up, continuing to rise after the day session opened and reaching an intraday high of 69,820 yuan/mt. As the session neared its end, copper prices pulled back slightly before finally closing at 69,670 yuan/mt, marking a 0.85% increase. Open interest reached 4,219 lots, a decrease of 369 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 5,197 lots. From a macro perspective, the US retail sales monthly rate for June exceeded expectations, rising to 0.6%, demonstrating consumer resilience. Meanwhile, Thailand's proposal to grant duty-free status to 90% of US goods and the EU's plan to impose new service tariffs and export controls on the US reflect divergent trade policies, further exacerbating macro environment uncertainties. On the fundamental side, despite LME inventory increasing for 13 consecutive days to reach 122,000 mt, it remains at a low level, providing support to copper prices from below.

The most-traded SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,410 yuan/mt. If we consider the after-tax price of 78,727 yuan/mt for the BC copper 2508 contract at 69,670 yuan/mt, the price spread between the SHFE copper 2508 contract and the BC copper contract is -317, indicating an inverted spread that has widened compared to the previous day.